England in Denial

(Photo by Roberto Lopez at Scopio)

Sometimes, facing the cost of inaction, we have to make a decision without enough information and we turn out to be wrong. At other times we may simply be wrong when we should know better.

Here we go again, with the pandemic pushing aside other topics. At midweek the UK government announced a decision that is contrary to information available and the advice of experts. If that decision continues to stand, protective measures against the SARS-CoV-2 virus will be lifted in England later this month, earlier than anticipated.

This pushes a fresh set of decisions on employers, charities, sports clubs, care homes… everyone in England.

What Do We Know?

PM Boris Johnson said:

Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue, it is my expectation that we will be able to end the last domestic restrictions [….]

The official case rate appears to be going down, but that data is unreliable. England has at least two PCR test labs that each provided tens of thousands of false negative test results. Until this month, reinfections were excluded from the case count even though some people are already having a second bout with Omicron, and over the span of the pandemic some people have had COVID three times (or in uncommon instances, four). Rapid at-home lateral flow tests have until very recently only swabbed the nose, but nasal swabs often miss Omicron when throat swabs detect it. Lateral flow results aren’t included in case counts. People were told weeks ago that if they have a positive LFT result, they no longer have to undergo a PCR test, thereby keeping them out of the official statistics.

It’s more sensible to watch Office for National Statistics prevalence data. ONS does random sample testing among the population every week. (I was chosen to participate early last summer and the swabbing left tears streaming down my face, which is normal when it’s properly done.) From the results, they mathematically calculate how prevalent active COVID infection is among the populations of the four nations of the UK. They are skilled at this and even publish their margin of error.

A week before the PM’s announcement, ONS estimated 1 in 20 people in England had COVID in the previous week.

The day of his announcement, that had shifted to 1 in 19.

I said to watch this number. I should have said to watch it while we can. Funding for it is due to run out soon and the government intends not to extend it.

Anyway, what Boris Johnson regards as an encouraging trend is in the direction of more infection. He is lifting protective rules when the virus is advancing. When you test positive and know you are contagious, he’s removing the requirement to isolate so that when your employer demands you go to work, you either have to drag yourself to work and spread the virus or refuse and risk being punished, perhaps even lose your job.

Bear in mind that this only applies to England. Other parts of the UK tend to be more strict. Wales still requires people who test positive to self-isolate. Many people in my area live in England and work in Wales. It will be illegal to go to Wales while positive for COVID-19. It isn’t clear how you could get caught, but earlier in the pandemic Wales did random stops near me of traffic coming in from England to make sure their stringent rules were being honored.

The Situation in Real Life Is…?

There has just been a wave of COVID cases in the orbit around my household. Neighbors, friends, some of my in-laws… Neighbors told me that they continued to test positive for two days after the current isolation rules said they could go out and about. Symptoms were crazy, changing radically and rapidly. They say they are still not okay. The dad in particular has lost a noticeable amount of lung capacity.

Children ages 5-11 are only able to get vaccinated in special circumstances. Despite their vaccine getting approved months ago, JCVI won’t authorize it and pediatric doses don’t appear to be in stock. Few schools have ventilation improvements or HEPA filters. Although schools that have HEPA filters dramatically reduced spread of the virus in classrooms, several schools have refused filtration units even when parents fundraised to put them in. Schools are and will continue to be pandemic incubators and spreaders.

We already know it isn’t a simple matter of being at home sick for a little while and then bouncing back. Too many people (estimates range from 10% to 53%) emerge with long term impairment. Government is pushing public health directly into our hands, so we have to decide how to handle it within our personal circles.

What Should We Do?

It’s easier to think about what to do when we apply the prevalence data to what we might realistically want to do. Even people who have taken booster jabs got those long enough ago for protection to be waning, so we know better than to rely on vaccination alone. It reduces severity for most (not all) people. It doesn’t block infection.

Let’s say a family holds a birthday or holiday gathering that includes a couple of sets of in-laws. In other words, typical size. That easily adds up to 19 people. Statistically, at least one person would be infected and expose the others, some of whom may be elderly or clinically vulnerable.

Or let’s say I run a business with 19 employees. Statistically, on average, a business that size has an employee with active COVID. If they can’t work from home or I don’t allow that any more, haven’t put in ventilation improvements or HEPA filters, let everyone stop wearing face masks, stop distancing and have our meetings face to face instead of remotely when possible… the week after I lift those protective measures, much of my staff will be infected.

Or let’s say my business only has 5 employees and I do what I just described above. Each week after I lift the mitigation measures, we’ll have a one in four chance of somebody in the staff having COVID. In about a month, we’ll be almost certain to have gotten COVID into our workplace. Whenever it happens, the following week it will have spread among the staff.

Either business would have too many people simultaneously out sick or limping along poorly. Speaking of impairment, some of them could end up with Long COVID, a long term problem for them and for the business. (So far I personally know at least five people with significant Long COVID.) Even a heartless boss who only cares about profit should understand that abandoning protective measures would knock the stuffing out of business performance.

Running a charity? A sports club? A gym? A shop? Planning a party? A church service? Think about those numbers. One in every 19 people in England had COVID last week. One in 20 the week before. Think about your own scenario the same way as in the examples above.

That bit of thinking is all it takes. Abandoning protective measures has nothing to do with science, nothing to do with protecting businesses or the economy, nothing to do with protecting public health, and everything to do with politics.

In England, the sensible thing to do is to Keep Calm And Carry On with protective measures no matter what the government says about easing up, in organizations and personally. By now, we all know how.

Not everyone will do that.

If you’re an English boss looking to hire and are willing to keep your workplace safe, a bunch of workers are about to become easy to entice away from their current employers. They’d appreciate a bit more safety than their current bosses offer. Go entice them.