Same Song, Umpteenth Verse
A few weeks after I began to write here, I asked one of the earliest subscribers for feedback. He thought I shouldn’t write so much about the pandemic.
Inflation began going through the roof. Energy prices in particular led the way. Then Russia invaded Ukraine. There have been plenty of other things to discuss.
But both of my countries, as well as a few others, recently lifted most or all COVID-related mitigations. If you have been going by government advice and want to ease up, don’t. It is much too early.
This is not purely my own opinion. I follow several doctors and researchers whom I have found to be especially insightful and steady about what’s happening with SARS-CoV-2. All of them, without exception, have been saying that easing mitigations now will lead to calamity.
Data is beginning to prove their point.
Viruses evolve. Someone’s remark soon after emergence of the Omicron variant was taken to mean that the variant is mild, hardly more than a common cold. That is not true. With the emergence of the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, that entire notion should be swept away. BA.2 is more severe, especially in children. It’s causing a lot of croup. Normally croup isn’t serious, but when caused by this virus, it can be life threatening. This subvariant is a little more skilled at getting past vaccines and resistance from previous infection. BA.2 is so contagious, scientists say it spreads almost as easily as measles. Case rates double almost twice as fast as with BA.1, the initial Omicron variant, and we all know how much faster that spread than Delta.
Not looking for it with test-and-trace programs does not make it disappear. People who need hospitalization with COVID land there faster when it’s BA.2. Although testing and surveillance are being scaled back, these cases are hitting hospitals. Places that monitor the virus in waste water are seeing a surge too.
We don’t know yet whether BA.2 will leave more or fewer people with Long COVID after the acute phase. We do know earlier versions of the virus leave damage in a significant proportion of people who have even mild or asymptomatic cases.
If you run an organization such as a business, school, charity, or church, the scientists say to carry on with all the appropriate mitigations against an airborne virus. That means avoiding large gatherings, meeting other people outdoors when possible, and social distancing. It means using a well fitted high quality face mask such as N95 or FFP2 whenever you may have to get near other people or go indoors where there have been other people within the past few hours. It means HEPA filters preferably with UV disinfection added (or Corsi-Rosenthal boxes if you need a low-budget version) and opening the windows for plenty of ventilation.
For individuals, of course it means getting vaccinated if you can and haven’t gotten the shots yet. If you are immunocompromised and can’t generate enough antibodies in response to vaccination, it means taking a preventive medication like Evusheld (tixagevimab/cilgavimab).
Some of the virus may get past all of those protective measures. It’s still worth the bother. Statistically, the heavier the exposure, the more severe illness is likely to be. The lighter the exposure, the lighter the damage.
We don’t know for sure how bad and how extensive the long term effects of COVID are, but at this point we can see that there are some. Doctors are talking about how many heart attack and stroke patients they are seeing who are much younger than usual for that type of problem. Doctors are also talking about early-onset dementia. (One doctor mentioned using for patient assessments the table from my post about brain injury documented in the UK biobank brain scan study.)
So with BA.2 known to be more severe and highly contagious, simply don’t ease up yet. Please carry on protecting yourself, family and friends around you, and your organization. What would be worse, some inconvenience or losing, say, your best friend?